000
FXUS64 KBMX 030457
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1157 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010

.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.

.DISCUSSION...

HURRICANE EARL WAS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WHILE A COLD FRONT WAS
PUSHING SOUTHWARD ACROSS MISSOURI. CENTRAL ALABAMA WAS BETWEEN THESE
SYSTEMS UNDER GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS
WERE GENERALLY RUNNING A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER THAN THIS TIME LAST
NIGHT. KEPT OVERNIGHT LOWS VERY CLOSE TO LAST NIGHT WITH CLOUDS
SLOWLY INCREASING NORTHWEST AFTER SUNRISE. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS
CONTINUE WITH THE IDEA THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY ZIP THROUGH
THE AREA FRIDAY...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED. THIS APPEARS TO BE
THE BEST RAIN CHANCES THE NEXT 7 DAYS AS A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS
INVADES FROM THE NORTH. FORECAST PACKAGE CHANGES WERE AT A MINIMUM
THIS EVENING.

75/LINHARES

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010/.

NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE
WAY FRIDAY AS A SHORT WAVE SHIFTS ACROSS THE EASTWARD CONUS. THIS
WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH THE STATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. COVERAGE IS PRETTY
MINIMAL AND SHOULD BE THE ONLY CHANCE FOR RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS.

COOLER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM INTO THE LOWER 90S
MONDAY OR TUESDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK OVER THE
SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE NEXT WEEK BUT
NOT OPPRESSIVELY HOT DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH NEAR NORMAL
OVERNIGHT TEMPS.

.AVIATION...06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

PATCHY FOG LOOKS LIKE IT WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING. MOST LOCATIONS
SHOULD REMAIN IN THE MVFR RANGE...ALTHOUGH TOI COULD BRIEFLY DROP
INTO IFR. AVIATION IMPACTS WILL REMAIN MINIMAL AS CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TO VFR AFTER 13Z. ALSO ADJUSTED THE TIME OF WHEN THE WIND
SHIFT WILL OCCUR DUE TO THE COLD FRONT.

NOTICE...KEET TAF WILL HAVE AMD LTD TO VIS WIND AND WX AMENDED TO
THE END OF THE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF 2010. THE CEILOMETER DATA
WILL BE GOING THROUGH NUMEROUS TESTS AND MONITORED FOR ACCURACY.

10/ARM

.CLIMATE...2010 SUMMER HEAT RECORD.

FOR THE PERIOD JUNE 1ST THROUGH AUGUST 31ST...HERE ARE THE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES FOR

BHM -83.7
MGM -84.2
TCL -84.0
ANB -82.3

ALL OF THESE TEMPERATURES RANK AS THE HOTTEST SUMMER PERIOD ON
RECORD.

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.